The Aubrey Outlook for Emerging Markets in 2021

For much of the last decade Global Emerging Markets (“GEMs”) have underperformed those in the

developed world, despite consistently higher economic growth rate, more exciting demographics and

less damage suffered in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. There are a number of reasons why this

alluring macro has not consistently translated into more exciting market returns. For the most part this

has been an understandable negative for allocators: why bother to venture to countries they have not

visited and buy into companies they have never heard of when they can invest in Apple or LVMH or

Unilever?


Although the macro backdrop is not the main driver of our bottom up, stock picking process, it clearly

pays to be aware of the big picture and it seems to us that the outlook for GEMs appears extremely

favourable for 2021 and beyond. There may also be reason to believe that this positive economic

development may not in the coming years be lost in translation when it comes to stock market

performance as it has done in the past.


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